Fall hemp new energy fund, bottom or cut meat?
Fell three months of new energy funds, cut meat or bottom?Hi, I’m Hui Ge.New energy base civilian circle still has two factions really, bought at the beginning of last year to earn hemp, bought at the end of the year to lose silly, new energy fund drops down 30% from high point now, how should we operate?Hui Elder brother this period program will chat with everybody: new energy this round rise logic, next round investment opportunity and current operation proposal program begins before Hui elder brother do a small investigation first, do you still hold new energy fund now?Hold buckle 1, do not buckle 2 Hui Elder brother thinks this round of new energy rise logic is market maturity and battery technology revolution you may not be able to imagine this year domestic new energy car sales in January is 160,000, 2020 is sold 15000 cars in January, two years time sales rise 10 times.If we want to understand the logic of the rise of new energy in these two years, we must understand this sentence: only when the technology is truly mature, and has begun to create revenue, the industry will really start to turn upward, the capital market will therefore be restless, and the industry will begin to have certain investment opportunities!Did you find that the new energy fund and the car sales chart surprisingly consistent.We can see that the new energy market before 2018 is policy-driven, Hui Ge 18 years to buy BYD Qin EV at that time the price is 270,000, the state subsidies of 100,000, the final land price is 170,000, but the vehicle loss insurance or in accordance with 270,000 to calculate.At that time, due to low market maturity, high battery cost and immature technology, policies were needed to help the development of new industries.In 2019 and 20 years, the range of new energy vehicles generally exceeds 500 kilometers, which is the dividing line of battery technology from immature to mature.18 years hui brother to buy electric cars because of Beijing license plate policy and choose to do, but 2020 many owners because really like the driving experience of electric cars.Just like marriage, I hope you marry for love, not for compromise.The symbolic event is that the stock price of NIO, which only delivers 50,000 cars, officially exceeds that of BMW and other car manufacturers, which confirms a word: what stocks buy is the expectation of the future. Although the sales volume of BMW is dozens of times that of NIO, institutional investors are optimistic about the broad future of new energy vehicles.After 2021, China’s new energy industry chain becomes increasingly mature, the cost of tram drops significantly, wuling Hongguang MINI and other popular online models become popular in Xiaohongshu, and Elon Musk, boss of Tesla, becomes the richest man in the world.New energy completely out of the circle, news reports continue, Ningde times became the public fund heavy position NO.1.Fund a year doubled, retail investors bracing positions, brokerage analysts predict ningde age 60 future revenue model, as if looking at all this is so beautiful, but soaring stock prices thoroughly overdraw the development of the industry in the next three years, more than 100 times the value of revenue growth is slowing, ningde era the prosperities, institutions to flee, retail investors hold up.Therefore, the best four investment time points for technology companies are: the concept of technology has just emerged, the technology has achieved a major breakthrough, the technology is stable and the future market is broad, and the technology eventually forms a monopoly.But make sure you’re one step ahead of that time. Don’t always wait for the news to come out that they’re out of abalone and lobster and you have to run in and pay for them.What’s next for new energy?Hui Ge believes that the way to travel is from electric cars to intelligent cars. We still call Nextev Tesla electric cars, but their ambitions go beyond that. Autonomous driving, flying cars and intelligent cars are their ultimate goals.If you’re just making electric cars, you’re at best Toyota, but if you’re making smart cars that drive on their own, you’re Toyota + Apple, with a market cap of well over $3 trillion.So Hui Elder brother thinks new energy opportunity is market maturity and battery technology revolution last time, next time opportunity is intelligentized certainly so.Let’s review the development history of smart phones. The current new energy vehicles are in the second stage of product upgrading and rapid development of hardware and software, which is equivalent to the year 2010 when Android is replacing Nokia.Tesla attracted global attention as soon as it came out, just like Apple did in those days. New car makers such as NiO Xiaopeng Ideal are the light of domestic products like Xiaomi. Byd’s transformation from fuel to all-in pure electricity is just like Huawei’s entry into mobile phones from the communication industry in those days.Now the market of new energy is the time for seven heroes to contend for hegemony in troubled times.Who do you think will make it out in the end?To become a tech giant like Apple.Byd, Tesla, Volkswagen, Toyota, NiO, Xiaopeng, etc., type your answers on the public screen.The story of intelligent cars can double the stock price, so how can we ordinary people catch the wind of intelligent?We can see that the new energy vehicle index dropped 22% in the last three months, because its focus is more inclined to invest in the whole manufacturing chain from lithium mining upstream to batteries and vehicles.Active new energy funds managed by money managers are mostly down 15 to 20 percent as they anticipate the risk ahead and shift some positions from lithium batteries to materials or other technology stocks as a hedge.Smart car theme fund retracement is basically around 5%, the market this wave of decline almost no impact on them.We can see from the holdings that smart cars rarely hold positions in the upstream and downstream supply chains of lithium ore and batteries. They are more focused on electronics, semiconductors, Internet of things and artificial intelligence.So the new energy market has come to a fork in the road. Do you choose lithium batteries or artificial intelligence?Let’s take a look at the Tesla news. Is the future of cars the same as mobile phones?Before starting the car, we watched the advertisement for 30 seconds and then started the automatic driving. We lay in the back seat and downloaded the video of bus station B. When we got to the gate of the company, we got off and went upstairs, and the car grabbed the parking space by itself.The stock market is always hyping the dream, the core of intelligence is automatic driving, who can break through L5 automatic driving first, who will control the next twenty years.But the popularity of self-driving there is not a short way to go, get the elder brother of the current advice is not to buy new energy index, passivity fund to buy new energy fund of fund managers active, active model fund future most intelligent configuration automobile industry chain, is not pure lithium battery and the vehicle, intelligent layout is the layout next time node:Major breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology or related policies.Brother Hui at the end of the video will give you the current operation suggestions, my own recent operation details can see the comment section later.A lot of small partners private letter Hui Elder brother himself has focused on high-end technology, shuttle Ha new energy, now turn off the lights every day to eat noodles, Hui elder brother can give me the analysis of new energy in the end to cut?We all know that the most fundamental reason for the rise of the new energy fund is the national release of carbon neutrality and carbon peak policy, carbon peak means to reach the peak of carbon emissions in 2030, and then in 2060 through greening and other ways to achieve the full absorption of carbon dioxide, that is, we often say “hedge”,Last year, for example, your new energy fund earned money by liquor fell to hedge, to achieve zero annual return.New energy vehicles are strategic emerging industries that many countries firmly support. Some countries have made clear the specific time point of limiting the sale of fuel vehicles.The most radical is Norway, which will sell only electric cars after 2025, not petrol ones.The Netherlands is next, with restrictions scheduled to begin in 2030.Why is new energy the top priority for China’s development?Because what’s behind the trolley is the energy revolution, the lifeblood of oil in whose hands do you think it is?(3) wind power photovoltaic green green electric power development will have a large enough demand, green power supply side, uhv transmission is end, new energy vehicles is the demand side, our country is entirely through the upstream and downstream industry chain, like chips, will no longer be “their”, so we can see the wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity is increasing every year.We can obviously see in the figure that pv installations will see explosive growth in 2021 with the development of technology, so last year was a year of pv fund boom.But now the expected growth rate is declining, so these funds are also falling, sunshine power shares fell from 180 yuan to half, the p/E ratio is 74 times.Can see the last are iron powder, here hui elder brother give you a summary, also hope brothers can help me like coin.New energy as a whole is currently in the stage of killing valuation. Last year, the growth rate was fast, and the market gave high valuation, but this year’s growth rate is generally lower, so it needs to fall to reduce PE.But the market never stops when it is reasonably valued. Investors are irrational, and there is a panic zone below the reasonably valued zone.But the long-term development of new energy is certain, the new energy fund as a whole holding positions Hui Elder brother suggested accounted for about 30 percent of the invested funds, full warehouse after the appropriate rebound reduction, not enough can wait another month to open the cast.New energy track all over the good company, but now much higher, Ningde two years of stock price increased 10 times.A simple example is that hermes bags are really good and sell for 50,000 yuan and many people want them.But $5 million?The underlying logic of investing and trading is the same.What we have to do now is to be patient and so on, do not fall on the bottom, such as gold pit when there is no bullet.